Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
