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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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